The Group’s forecast predicts faster growth rates for long-haul markets and those markets to, from and within Asia. Factors affecting demand include GDP growth, aircraft productivity, operating costs, environmental issues and the number of aircraft retirements. We forecast a demand for civil aero engines of US$800 billion over the next 20 years and for services of US$600 billion over the same period.
Civil engine market
Civil services market
With traditional defence markets under budget pressures there may be delays in new programmes but these will be offset by longer term services on current programmes where we are well placed. Demand for military engines over the next 20 years is estimated at US$155 billion and for services and support equipment we estimate a market of US$260 billion over the same period.
Defence engine market
Defence services market
The Group forecasts a demand for marine power and propulsion systems valued at US$215 billion over the next 20 years. Marine aftermarket services are expected to generate significant opportunities with demand forecast at US$125 billion over the same period.
Marine equipment market
Marine services market
The Group’s 20-year forecast values the total aero-derivative gas turbines sales in the oil and gas and power generation sectors at more than US$70 billion. Over this period, demand for associated services is expected to be around US$50 billion.
Based on the International Energy Agency forecasts, the Group has conservatively estimated that demand for mission-critical equipment, systems and engineering services for the nuclear island could reach US$390 billion over the next 20 years while demand for associated reactor support services could amount to US$250 billion over the same period.
Energy engine and services market
Civil nuclear equipment and services market