The Rolls-Royce 10-year Market Outlook predicts a requirement for 27,000 new aircraft to be delivered from 2014-2023, with 55,000 engines needed to power these aircraft, generating a total requirement of around 1,600 million pounds of installed thrust.
The forecast covers passenger and cargo jets, business jets (excluding Very Light Jets) and regional aircraft.
The largest engine sector, measured by thrust, is the twin-aisle (widebody) market. We forecast that around 4,500 widebody aircraft will be delivered over the period, with the installed engine thrust accounting for 51% of the jet market. These engines will power both Airbus (A330, A350 XWB and A380) and Boeing (787, 777, 747 and 767) aircraft. Rolls-Royce currently has a market share of 50% in the widebody market, measured by firm backlog.
The forecast predicts global passenger traffic, as measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) will increase by a compound 4.5 per cent per annum over the period. Growth will be more rapid for long-haul markets and markets involving developing countries. Asia is already the largest market today, and will cement that position due to continued rapid growth in China, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries. Market liberalisation is a major driver of growth, with many countries agreeing more liberal air service agreements. Also, new generation twin-aisle aircraft are themselves a stimulant to demand growth, as they lower airline operating costs, and enable new intercontinental routes to be launched.
The Rolls-Royce Market Outlook attempts to take into account a wide range of issues and factors that impact demand. These include economic growth, environmental issues, airline industry trends, aircraft productivity, operating costs, and the number of aircraft retirements. We also monitor through-life transition trends in the secondary market to inform our views on programme longevity and lease rate expectations.
We welcome opportunities to develop our understanding of the market. For further information or feedback please contact Civil Aerospace.