Rolls-Royce Civil Aerospace produces a 20-year global market outlook, which covers passenger and cargo jets, corporate and regional aircraft.
We predict, over the 20 year period from 2012-2031, the global market will require 149,000 engines to be delivered, worth around US$975 billion. These engines are required to power 68,000 commercial aircraft and business jets. The forecast predicts global passenger traffic, as measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) will increase by a compound 4.5 per cent per annum over the period. Growth will be more rapid for long-haul markets and markets to, from and within developing regions. Market liberalisation is a major driver of growth, with many countries agreeing more liberal air service agreements. New generation twin-aisle aircraft are themselves a stimulant to demand growth, as they lower airline operating costs, and enable new intercontinental routes to be launched.
In addition to the forecast for Original Equipment, we forecast a market opportunity worth over US$700 billion for the provision of engine-related aftermarket services.
Due to the constantly changing nature of the market, Rolls-Royce has decided to simply publish a high-level summary of the forecast here. To build our forecast, we attempt to take into account a wide range of issues and factors that impact demand. These include economic growth, environmental issues, airline industry trends, aircraft productivity, operating costs, and the number of aircraft retirements. We constantly maintain an up-to-date market view, with a much greater level of detail, and are happy to discuss this with customers, investors, partners and other stakeholders.
We welcome opportunities to develop our understanding of the market. For further information or feedback please contact Civil Aerospace.